General information

Code: TAP H5-8301 Welriscc
Period: 1.2.2025 - 1.2.2027
Project leader at FDV: izr.prof.dr. Maša Filipovič Hrast

Abstract

The WELRISCC project examines the responses of European welfare states to third-generation social risks arising from climate change. The climate crisis poses a challenge to modern welfare states, which face a double dilemma: on the one hand, they are exposed to serious environmental threats and new social risks, and on the other hand, they themselves contribute to these challenges, as they are largely dependent on economic growth, which provides them with funding and legitimacy. Limiting greenhouse gas emissions and the green transition are essential to mitigate the effects of climate change, but mitigation and adaptation measures can also place additional burdens on vulnerable groups, regions and countries.

The project aims to investigate how risks are distributed among social groups, how they are politically and normatively constructed, and how institutional and political actors in 16 European countries respond to them. Particular attention is paid to how existing institutions, ideas, interests and social inequalities shape the development of new eco-social regimes in Europe and how the European Green Deal is implemented in national contexts. By linking previously separate debates, theoretical approaches and methodological frameworks, the project develops innovative databases and builds on existing theoretical concepts. In doing so, it creates a comprehensive analytical framework that enables an in-depth understanding of the diversity and possible convergence processes of European welfare states in facing eco-social challenges.

The main objectives of the project are:

• to map the existing responses of European welfare states to the third generation of social risks,
• to explain the differences in responses between countries by analysing institutional and political factors, and
• to develop new theoretical approaches for studying the interplay between climate change and welfare states.

The phases of the project and their realization

The project is organised into seven interrelated work packages (WPs) that enable a comprehensive analysis of eco-social risks.

WP1: Developing a theory of eco-social welfare state regimes in Europe: in the first work package, we aim to develop a theoretical framework for analysing the responses of welfare states to third-generation social risks. We link the literature on welfare regimes, development regimes and the concept of the green state, and analyse the intertwining of risk distribution, politicisation and institutionalisation.

Main research question: How can we conceptualise welfare state responses to eco-social risks? How are responses to these new risks shaped by existing institutions, ideas, interests, risk exposure, and vulnerabilities?

WP2: Institutions regulating eco-social risks: in this work package, we will establish a comparative database of policies for managing direct and indirect risks in 16 European countries. The analysis enables a comparison of institutional approaches and an assessment of their effectiveness in regulating new risks.

Main research question: How do institutions react to indirect and direct social risks?

WP3: Conceptual construction of eco-social risks: the third work package offers a cultural-sociological perspective on the formation of third-generation social risks. It focuses on the intertwining of cultural and class structures in different eco-social regimes. Through focus groups in Belgium, Germany, France, Poland, Slovenia, Sweden and the United Kingdom, the research within this work package contributes to the understanding of prevailing moral paradigms and ways of shaping and legitimising social and political tasks.

Main research question: How do societies realize third generation social risks?

WP4: Interest politics of eco-social risks: In the fourth work package, we examine interest divisions related to third-generation social risks and policies to manage them. The aim is to systematically map the key conflicts that arise in the design and implementation of these measures and to analyse how they differ between countries and from conflicts typical of industrial and post-industrial risks. At the same time, we will examine the processes of their emergence and the role of institutional and political actors in their adoption, transformation and integration into political processes.

Main research question: How are existing political and interest-based cleavages reconfigured in response to eco-social risks, and how do institutional and political actors shape these evolving conflicts across national contexts?

WP5: Exposure to eco-social risks: in the fifth work package, we analyse the prevalence and socio-economic distribution of direct risks (e.g. air and water pollution, extreme weather events) and indirect risks (e.g. energy poverty, costs and risks associated with car dependency). We examine whether different forms of risk are intertwined and reinforce each other, and how they are distributed across social groups and countries. Using comparative quantitative data from the ISSP survey and the SPIN database, we will also assess the extent to which social policies reduce exposure to risks and mitigate their consequences, for example by providing an adequate level of income security.

Main research question: How are direct and indirect 3rd generation social risks distributed across social groups and across welfare systems?

WP6: Social constructions of vulnerability and inequality: The sixth work package is led by the Faculty of Social Sciences. We focus on vulnerabilities related to third-generation social risks and on understanding the inequalities associated with them. We analyse how new forms of vulnerability are linked to social divisions and how discussions about direct and indirect eco-social risks fit into the framework of social justice principles and eligibility criteria.

Main research question: How do cultural constructions of risk exposure and vulnerabilities relate to welfare state responses to direct and indirect 3^rd generation social risks? How do different societal cleavages relate to risk exposure and vulnerabilities and shape interest structures?

WP7: European comparative analysis

The seventh work package brings together data from all WPs of the project and presents a comparative synthesis. Its main objective is to systematically compare 16 European countries in terms of their welfare states' responses to third-generation social risks and to identify patterns of divergence and convergence between countries. Special attention is also paid to the implementation of the European Green Deal in Member States.

The work package will result in in-depth comparative analyses and publicly available case studies of individual countries.

Main research question: How do European welfare states differ in their responses to third-generation social risks, and what differences/similarities emerge?

Results / Key findings

More information on official project page: https://welriscc.com/ 

Key words

climate change, climate justice, social cleavages, social justice, social risks, welfare states

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG10 | Reduce inequalities
SDG13 | Climate action
SDG16 | Peace, justice and strong intitutions